Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) estimates that EVs will add 6.8% to global electricity consumption in 2040, and that they will drive a surge in EV lithium-ion battery demand from 151 gigawatt-hours in 2019 to 1,748GWh in 2030. New mining capacity for all battery materials will need to come online to avoid this causing a supply crunch.
McKerracher said: “Transport is moving into a period of disruptive change, with many different factors coming into play. We have incorporated several new elements into our analysis, including an updated EV cost model that includes the cost of a home EV charger to reflect more accurately the costs individuals face to go electric; and a battery chemistry forecast for each of the new segments covered in this year’s report.”
Despite the radical changes afoot, the outlook for road transport emissions remains far from rosy. The BNEF team sees the size of the global on-the-road conventional passenger car fleet continuing to grow until 2030. This means that road vehicle emissions will continue to rise for the next decade, followed then by a sharp fall in the years before 2040, which will only return them to levels similar to 2018.